John Richard Moser <[email protected]> wrote:
[...]
> I've mapped the growth of the .tar.bz2 archives in kilobytes since
> 2.6.0, they show an erratic pattern but a strong overall linear growth
> pattern. This means the actual size of the kernel is polynomial and
> integrates crudely to:
>
> 18.59x^2+133.1x+32600
>
> For x == minor (i.e. 2.6.0 == 0; 2.6.18 == 18). This produces a level
> of error; however, I've graphed the error and it seems to be off by no
> more than 400k ever and show a horizontal trend (i.e. overall accurate);
> however I'll have to apply the same prediction to future kernel versions
> to get a good picture.
Hum... perhaps going against time (not minor) is better?
You could also include the whole 2.5.x set (at least since git became
common) for a larger series...
[...]
> My math predicts that 2.6.57 (+39) will be 100M (in approximately 7
> years if you assume 1 kernel release every 2 months); 2.6.92 (+35) will
> breech 200M; 2.6.117 (+25) will breech 300M; and 2.6.138 (+21)) will
> breech 400M. That should suffice for predictions over the next 20 years
> based on this crude model.
I'd trust your curve for, say, 5 minors. Not more. The quadratic term is
rather hard to justify in any case... linear growth (== new drivers at a
(roughly) constant rate, a (roughly) constant number of people actively
working on the kernel with constant productivity, ...) I give you easily.
--
Dr. Horst H. von Brand User #22616 counter.li.org
Departamento de Informatica Fono: +56 32 2654431
Universidad Tecnica Federico Santa Maria +56 32 2654239
Casilla 110-V, Valparaiso, Chile Fax: +56 32 2797513
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